Hey John,

To be honest you ask a great question!

Yet to also be equally honest:
I don’t think anybody that’s truly convinced they really know is going to mention it here transparently (why give away their secret little edge in a tough time for many?), and others may try to misdirect or redirect with other answers alternatively (or try to prove their standing by offering certainty). 

Me?
Well, knowing what a grouch I must sound like today...
I probably should “let loose” and contribute something, so I’ll humour it (with a twist) via a bit of a non-answer and some lengthy key takeaways; yet I hope it still helps add to the discussion and gives you something to work with!

So, consider this your unrequested blog entry from JRN Weekly, January 2021 Edition...

So, the age old question..
Where does the market go from here?

Forward. 
The market will go forward. 

“Oh wow, thanks senpai obvious - I thought you said you were going to let loose, how riveting” I know, I know.. Hang with me though. 

I could answer your questions with simple answers explaining what I personally think..
Yet, many others far more qualified, experienced, and intelligent have tried so before (succeeding and failing with mixed results). 

Art is a bit like politics: you have the ability to look back and say “this is why it happened” looking pretty intelligent, or interpret current polling information and say “this is what I think will happen” with some perceived credibility - yet the first is undoubtedly less risky to do, because the events played out already and the data is already there to translate.  

The point is: there’s people who spend literal fortunes hedging their bets, interpreting every small facet of information, hire teams of advisors, ect - just to get an edge in “seeing into the future”. 

The question is if you really can, in actuality, know where things are headed definitively.
I was speaking to one of my earliest mentors last week who’s been in this industry around half of a century; and they simply hazarded “you just can’t” when we had this same discussion.  
I think they’re right technically on the fact you can’t predict it with absolute certainty: surprises do happen, as do unseen or priorly unconsidered events. 

Yet I also feel some people have been able to do quite alright for themselves by working with current information on hand, analyzing trends, performing research & reducing cognitive bias (amongst other things) to shape their own risk or success in the market.

Still, the Picasso Fallacy applies to all:
If you had invested in his work when he was alive, you’d be quite wealthy. Guess what though? 
For every Pablo Picasso - there were hundreds of unique or potentially influential 20th century artists who we walk past works from in the garbage bins today, or ones who failed to reach acclaim and went on to go back to working at the office. 

So, I could tell you I sold twice as much early 19th century Arita porcelains last month compared to the month before; and honestly say “Late Edo Arita is growing at 200%!” and not be lying. 
Would I go sell all of my early 17th century Imari and buy up heaps of cheaper Arita-ware from 200 years later knowing the popularity and margins now able to be accomplished off that one data-set? 
I’m admittedly pretty unorthodox, but even I wouldn’t quite recommend doing that! 

Therefore, I hope you don’t mind me avoiding lockstep specifics in advising or theorizing what’s going to grow, what’s going to crash, and what’ll be the next big 18th century Falangcai of 2025 - and instead; offer you some components or aspects of the market I’ve noticed/received and takeaways I’ve gathered from them. 
(And, I love Picasso - but chances are I wouldn’t have bought into his Blue Period during the early 1900s if I could have bought French Impressionism, nor had enough money to in the early 2000s [also, especially if I could buy so much more French Impressionism after the bargains started peaking through] 
So your mileage may vary, I may be very wrong, ect - take from it what you wish, and go figure it out yourself and see what’ll work best for you, grasshopper)..

Key takeaways for me going into 2021, noticed throughout 2020:

1) Online is the new king supreme.
COVID changed and did a lot of things to and for the market.
One thing it did wasn’t so much change certain aspects, but facilitate them.
Online sales had largely been growing by multiples each year through grabbing traffic & spending heavily on marketing.
Online retail figures grew multiples within the first few months of COVID, yet retail isn’t the only aspect which poised new growth opportunities as art powerhouses like Christie’s and Sotheby’s unveiled their online based auction platforms during this period of heavy social distancing & traditional access levels reduced dramatically.

Expect this to be the new norm for the rest of the century, not the rest of the year. 
Many are staying this phase of society has reached its next Industrial Revolution via technology: and to some degree, I’m inclined to say they’re correct. 

2. Out with the old, in with the new. 
2020 saw some things halted, started, impacted, or as earlier said: facilitated.
The consistency of modern styles and works by contemporary artists largely continued as it has been for the last decade or two; both in volume of sales, along with records being reached & results realized. 
Compare this to the not-anymore-bulletproof “tried and true” markets for classical masters or such which once dominated and headlines sales, and understand this growth towards contemporary and modern category preferences seems to be turning upwards rather than plateauing anytime soon. 

3. Volatility, volatility, more volatility.

During a time of financial hardship for many, along with new trends emerging & developments reached.. there’s little doubt that certain areas once seen as “safe bets” merely a couple of years ago, are now anything but. 
Many in the middle and upper-middle classes who make up a somewhat considerable grouping of “investor collector” types (or similar), are now more hesitant to consider buying that “as good as Van Gogh in a few years” classical piece for $35,000 after many others are turning-foot for other means or avenues of reaching stability and return of investment during a year where market activity in certain areas reached all-time lows; often just as bad, (or far worse) than the 2008 world market crash. 

While this is often more of a case-by-case basis: most are probably thinking twice before purchasing full dinner services of 19th century armorial export porcelains compared to just 5 years ago, when it would seem almost foolish to not buy a second set while you were at it.

4) Collect quality, fearlessly. 
Despite seeing a lot of uncertainty for both results realized and sell-through rates in middle-market works comprising the $15,000-$90,000 range; high quality or very unique/rare examples of most artwork did remarkably well in comparison to prior years (and often setting priorly unheard of records or gaining all-time high amounts of visibility in this year of online collecting, buying, and selling). 

While top collectors were looking to replace that cabinet full of export armorial porcelain multiples they had just consigned that were their least favourite anyways, as commonly seen when large amounts of items surge (and often overwhelm) the marketplace when people sell from the bottom of their collection: most were far less reserved in purchasing the “7th known in the whole world” example of something, than fighting a lukewarm crowd for a piece that was “7th best in today’s catalogue” examples of items; and fought to obtain them for a pretty final penny.
The market will always have warm and regarded reception for high quality; particularly exceedingly rare or uncommon/priorly unseen examples. 

5) Rising alternatives within the middle markets.
Echoing prior statements: no one style, origin, or subsection of art is impenetrable or “bulletproof” in approaching - and COVID may have been the catharsis or wake up call for many within the market to realize this.

“Tongzhi and Kangxi, same thing - just a couple of years in difference for production then; and future value now... but not forever, right?” 
Eh... about that. 
Nothing lasts forever; and there is such thing as “too much of a good thing” - so while we all say we buy because we like something: we’re all human too, and humans lie to themselves and others about why they “like” or buy some things. 

Even outside of the collecting for investment market which is controversial in its aspects, even hardcore enthusiasts less impacted by financial motivation/incentive are finally looking to branch out in spades and appreciate quality from areas and avenues priorly overlooked. 

Sure we’re seeing small pockets of resurgence in certain areas or fields of artwork - but it’s admittedly easy to cherry-pick the micro when we could just embrace the macro: the market is changing.
The individualism which often created the regarded and timelessly monumental works we revere today is also starting to show itself in the tastes of those who buy it (or pass up on it while their other friends do). 

No one person is the same; and it’s time we learn to embrace that as both collectors and hardcore enthusiasts.

Which brings us to our final takeaway... 

6) Chinese buying power (still), yet not quite as expected.

China, China, China.. oh where would the global art market be without you? 
(Probably buying the next biggest expanding GDP world economy’s cultural items to sell instead).

In all seriousness...
There’s no denying it: China is doing well still, and comparatively (to many others) has started to recover initial setbacks experienced by its middle class and the early days of the virus considerably & with record speed.

More recovery at a faster rate is good news for everybody; and several new or proprietary ventures in the mainland have started to see unprecedented commercial success already upon this rebound. 

Barring major overnight shift or change; we can expect to see China continually drawing and pulling major market attention in its direction as trade and influence on the global stage continue for the country. 
What will be interesting to see, however, are the new trends emerging within the country’s class of collectors - many of which are relatively new & first generation connoisseurs - or still finding their footing in the stylistic voice they approach when adding new pieces of artwork to their homes or galleries.

Houses and dealers in the Western Hemisphere (ideally) should be able to finally come to the realization which seems to have been written on the wall for some time now: 

The Chinese art market (and the collector base of considerable appreciation for taste & quality comprising its ranks) does not want fully simplified, reductive, and otherwise uniform & conventional forms of ”paint by numbers” in approach addressing the types of art on offer which often has worked in the minds of some in the past.

We need to stop generalizing the “average” Chinese collector, and accept that there’s a variety of intrigue & interest for uncommon, unconventional, and unique forms of art along with sub-styles which appeal to this buying block’s diversity - speaking volume to its strengths and sophistication as many within it now consider 18th century French Furniture, 19th century Impressionists, and 20th century Japanese National Living Treasures amongst its expansive depth of artistic appreciation. 

“Conclusion, finally... please” you say?

2020 was a hard year for humanity, and all that comes with it - which includes the art market for better or worse.

The market is in a strange spot now.
To some, it’s unprecedented - and with justified reasoning to say such.

Yet as art lovers, and as many of us are here: scholars of history, we know there’s always going to be a time of unique circumstance, outlook, and rigors moving forward. 

The market is changing in ways which presents itself with large risks - but also with this comes opportunity, and in some cases (be that shrewdness, planning, or simply luck of the draw) comes even larger reward, too. 

Happy New Year to all. 
Buy, sell, collect, or trade what you love - relish the story, the quality, and the history.
You’ll learn to find something new to appreciate each time in doing so, and hopefully share with others in your journey along the way. 

Best,
-JRN

@jrn  It's an interesting time indeed. I find the contemporary tastes to be especially wild and impossible to predict and sometimes very hard to even understand. Sometimes quality is king, other times originality, regardless of what it is, captures the attention. I for one am not afraid to share my thoughts about where things are going, but the problem is I just have no idea and very little experience to draw from. But being new at this though I do still have some observations filtered through my beginners mind that I will share for the heck of it.

I think that 19th and 20th C cloisonne might be undervalued and could be a good opportunity. The amount of work that has gone into these pieces seems extraordinary and I feel it should be more appreciated and so that could be an area for growth. 

You brought up armorial as an area that has lagged a bit. But I think it is a very interesting area. I love how it is a blend of east and west, which is beautifully symbolic. It also can be of high quality, as Peter has even noted, being sometimes made by the same makers that contributed to the Imperial orders of their day. Much of it is from a golden age of Chinese ceramics. And there are a set number of pieces that can only exist, so that makes them rare. Add to it whatever historical associations and I think you have something that will remain of interest even if it is in a little bit of a slump right now compared to other things. 

The Japanese metal work from the late 19th early 20th C I find to at times be incredible for it's quality and artistic purity. The talent was extraordinary that made them and the pieces have an essence that seems both historically antique but also timelessly contemporary. 

Also the Japanese carvings from that same time can display a level of skill that is hard to believe. The level of detail captured in some carvings is just exquisite, and I have seen examples going for a few hundred dollars that I feel are almost priceless in their beauty. 

Silk could have perhaps more room to rise. Again, for the high quality pieces, the amount of work and skill that went into creating them is astonishing, and the beauty and appeal of silk will of course endure forever, because we love things that are smooth, colorful, and shiny. 

I have other thoughts, but I think I'll leave it there and see what others have to say.  John

Thank you JRN, an interesting analysis. I have always collected only and sold nothing but my mistakes (with considerable losses, but that’s tuition fees). Being a small scale collector mostly in the $200-2000 price range big auction houses, trends and strategies aren’t really my world. I have only a few guidelines to offer from a collector‘s view point.

1. Always buy the best you can afford. 

2. Buy less but better.

3. Try to fulfill the three criteria: quality, rarity, condition 

4. Hold the good stuff for at least a decade. Therefore it should please your eye and taste and not be bought for speculation only. 

@johnshoe I agree with JRN with respect to a certain degree, that the market follows politics and the economy, and then to some degree is effected by changes in our societal demands/needs.

I have some experience with giving financial advice as a banker, but not investmemt advice, so let me pose my response in part as a question.

What do you want out of the market?

It is far easier to give yourself a clear direction on your personal art buying/selling once you know what your goal is, and if you don't have one...well, then you need to get one (or more).

The wealthy buy/sell art as a place to store wealth and potentially defer or avoid taxes when transferring wealth.

Scholars/enthusiasts buy art to preserve history, and seek to improve their collections by buying the highest quality pieces within their budget, and culling (selling) lesser pieces that no,longer have relevance to their collection.

For those of us that buy & sell art as a business, I think we should cautiously avoid trying to predict the market, but look at where pricing is in the moment (let's say within a period of a year), and do our best to buy as far below that mark as reasonably possible, and when the opportunity arises to sell at a profit, sell!

To try and tackle the nuance of identifying genuine pieces from the abundance of reproductions, then to invest at the going market rate on the hopes that maket will improve and provide future reward, is a bad business model. 

That is not to say you can not buy as a collector and also with the intent to resell. Just be sure you know at the time you make your purchase what is your goal for the piece you are buying at that time.

I have met too many struggling antique / art dealers that suffer from one of two afflictions:

1) They buy like a collector, and love their collection more so than the financial market, and are unable to sell because they are incapable of achieving a sales price that produces a profit, or allows them to part with their sentimental attachments to their items.

2) They buy frivolously, without careful attention to price or quality in relation to the market demands, so they end up with a house full of objects that quckly, sometimes immediately, become unsellable.

When my friends and family have asked for advice on how to get into 'the biz', I've always made the recommendation that in the beginning they should:

1) buy at a price point that if they lost that same amount of money at a casino, that they wouldn't loose sleep over.

2) And, to try and sell the piece at auction right away with no reserve.  The market speaks loudly and honestly about how well you bought when you put something up for sale with a $9.99 starting price with no reserve. If you make money, you know you're on the right track, and if you loose money, then you've learned just how badly you screwed up.  Either way, your wiser.

@greeno107  I have a couple a couple things I would like to discuss with you. Reach out to [email protected] if you are so inclined. Cheers!  John