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I think we have all acknowledged that the number of good quality / period Chinese antiques in the market seem to be getting quite low. However, I was thinking if it could actually be calculated... perhaps not extremely accurately, but sort of a general sense. So, here is my attempt....keep in mind that I'm doing this quite literally as I'm submitting this post.
So, quick Google search... there was around 160 million people at about the peak of the population in the Ming, and Wikipedia says that the population of the Qing started at around 100 million and grew to 400 million by the end of the Qing.
To make the math simple, let's just say the average population was 200 million during the span of the Ming and Qing, roughly 500 years.
I would define 'quality' pieces of art as those pieces made for the elite, the top 5%, so that population would represent 10 million people (not including Imperial related works...that will be a different catagory of study because the emperor had a huge spance of real estate and entire workshops at his disposal... so let's leave that one along for now).
How many pieces of art would the elite commission per year? I have no idea... but, let's just say atleast 1 per year. If you have evidence of an accurate number, please post.
That means that roughly 10 million pieces were created each year x 500 years = 5 billion pieces of quality art by the end of the Qing.
Now, let's take into account the likely destruction of many of these pieces due to ships sinking, war, normal breakage & wear... Does half sound right? That sounds a bit conservative, but I'm going with 50% destroyed. That leaves 2.5 billion pieces of quality Chinese art.
How much of that is already in a museum? Let's say 50%, again. We're left with 1.25 billion pieces.
And, let's say some of that art stayed in China, never to leave China's borders....50% sound okay? Now we're left with 725,000 pieces.
That's a pretty small number when considering the current population of about 1.5 billiion in the USA, UK, and Europe.
If we increase the production of quality art from 1 per year, to 5 per year, we're still only talking 3.625 million pieces in today's global market. And, as these pieces are held in private ownership, only a percentage of them come up for sale at auction/sale each year.
Then, if the items are repatriated to China, they're out of the global market forever, which has been happening for the past 30 years at an alarming rate.
To be frank, I think the 1 per year production rate is generous...quality art was expensive, and culturally speaking, I think Chinese people bought art very frugaly and only on special occassions, and preserved these pieces to the best of their ability as heirlooms, rather than buying new pieces year after year.
I wonder if we are looking at a market, today, that might only contain a few hundred thousand pieces of quality Chinese art that has not been repatriated.
Thoughts?
What is your definition of quality? You don’t seem to include any Chinese wares made for export. The Nanking Cargo was recovered in the 1980s from a VOC ship that sank in 1752. Over a 150,000 pieces of porcelain were recovered and sold by Christie’s at a very successful auction in Amsterdam.
@william Let me try to clarify.
Here’s how I defined it in the post:
“I would define 'quality' pieces of art as those pieces made for the elite, the top 5%, so that population would represent 10 million people (not including Imperial related works…”
So, I’m referring to wares made for DOMESTIC elite.
I think export wares, specifically those of fine quality or by special order & designs, would increase the number of ‘quality’ pieces in the global market significantly.
I think the international market could crash with the stroke of a pen, but as Peter says, "always a market for the fine." If a commercial enterprise, "make hay while the sun shines," for collectors it is irrelevant except for estate distribution, as for me, immaterial, because if I have something valued in the hundreds or more, I want it to be a book on my bookshelf or to be shiney and set in precious metal, plus, it does not have to be fine to have great age and history. "The rich are different." "Yes, they have more money."
@greeno107 you screwed up your math when you cut 1.25 billion in half and came up with 750 thousand. The number you would actually have is 625 million.
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